2024

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Week 16

Remaining Outcomes:

4

A late season shocker has given Buhduh her 10th correct pick of the season and the #1 spot on the FEP leaderboard.

It's the first time that Jay hasn't been in first place since Week 8.

After starting with 131,072 ways in which this season could end, there are now only 4 possible outcomes remaining. And we still have an extremely tight race.

The Picks

A

H

16

PHL

WSH

W

L

L

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

17

DAL

PHL

L

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

L

L

A

H

16

PHL

WSH

W

L

L

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

17

DAL

PHL

L

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

L

L

A

H

PHL

WSH

W

L

L

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

DAL

PHL

L

W

L

W

W

L

W

W

W

W

L

L

The Standings

W

S

The Standings

W

S

The Charts

W

S

The Charts

W

S

The Analysis

Disclaimer: The numbers above? Not quite right—again, thanks to our imperfect algorithm and complicated tiebreaker system. Emer remains statistically eliminated, despite any lingering hope represented above. Here's where things stand after Week 16:

Loser's Luck: Buhduh managed to nail one of the toughest picks of the season, correctly calling the Eagles' loss to the Commanders. To give credit where credit's due, Andy did happen to join her in doubting the Eagles this week despite his ongoing attempts to be a less pessimistic fan. The bold choice has put Buhduh not only within striking distance but at the very apex of the league, leaving Jay clinging to a single outcome that leaves him victorious.

Yes, But: That outcome is still the most probably finish. The adjusted, tiebreaker-weighted odds tell the true story:

  1. Jay: 64.1%

  2. Buhduh: 35.9%

For all of you math nerds at home—Jay's odds are just the Eagles' chances of winning each of their final two games multiplied together. ESPN gives them 76.8% to beat the Cowboys and 83.4% to beat the Giants.

Truth (Could) Hurts: Jay's path to victory, while mathematically strong, hinges on the health of one very important player's concussed brain. If Jalen Hurts doesn't start on Sunday, the Eagles' chances against the Cowboys could drop significantly. A potential matchup of Kenny Pickett vs. Cooper Rush doesn't inspire much confidence, making the current projections feel shakier than they look.

All Eyes on Sunday: A loss to the Cowboys on Sunday would hand the FEP trophy to Buhduh, cementing her underdog triumph and first ever championship. But if the Eagles win, the FEP title race will carry into the final week of the season. In that scenario, both Jay and Buhduh would end with the same number of correct picks with the championship hinging on our newest tiebreaker, final divisional record.

The stakes couldn't be higher for Jay, Buhduh, or anyone emotionally invested in the team wearing midnight green.