Tiebreaker Truths: The algorithm is mighty, but it has one fatal flaw: it doesn't consider the FEP's tiebreaker rules. That's why the charts above reflect all the remaining scenarios in which each competitor either wins or ties for first place. Tiebreakers, however, change all of that. Now that we're down to 8 possible outcomes, it's time for some truths.

As a reminder, here are the FEP tiebreakers, in order:

1. Final record (e.g. 12-5)

2. Final divisional record (e.g 4-2)

3. Total Season Points (e.g. 460)

Should I have factored these in earlier? Probably. Did waiting create some spicy Week 15 drama? Absolutely.

Where We Stand: Breaking down the results with tiebreakers, here's who wins the trophy based on the 8 remaining outcomes in the Eagles' season:

Shocking Goodbyes: Emer, Jacob, Pop, and Sarah—eliminated.

Losing Jacob, Pop, and Sarah?: Not a huge shock given they were still alive at 12.1% weighted but in a distant tie for last place.

Losing Emer? Now that's a twist. At 91.2% weighted and ½ of the powerhouse duo Jaymer, Emer looked unstoppable. So what happened?

Emer Explained: Remember that her 91.2% is the chance that Emer wins or ties for first place, and, in her case, she would be tied with Jay for first place across the board. Let's take a look at that same outcome table after Week 15 but before any tiebreakers are factored in:

You'll notice that this aligns with the percentages in our straight leaderboard.

• Jay & Emer: 6/8 outcomes = 75%

• Buhduh: 6/8 outcomes = 75%

• Jacob, Pop, and. Sarah: 2/8 outcomes = 25%

Cool. Good to check the algorithm works. Now on to our first tiebreaker, Final Record. Here are the records that each remaining competitor predicted:

• Jay: 14-3

• Emer, Jacob, Buhduh, & Sarah: 12-5

• Pop: 10-7

If the Eagles win all or 2 of their last 3 games (ending 15-2 or 14-3, respectively), Jay wins the tiebreaker. If they win just 1 (ending 13-4), Jay, Buhduh, Jacob, and Sarah remain tied, but Pop's done.

Here's the updated table with this Final Record tiebreaker factored in:

The result? Emer's eliminated from 4/6 scenarios where she was tied for first. Now looking at our second tiebreaker, which is new this season, let's see what every remaining competitor predicted for the Eagles' Final Divisional Record:

• Jay, Emer, Jacob, and Sarah: 5-1

• Buhduh: 4-2

Buhduh's extra divisional loss is the dagger for Emer. All three of the Eagles' remaining games are divisional games, and they're currently undefeated in the division. This means that Buhduh wins all tiebreakers here if the Eagles lose two or more of their final three games

Here's the updated table with the Final Divisional Record tiebreaker factored in:

That leads us here - with four competitors statistically eliminated this week, including our season-long cinderella, Emer. It's a heartbreaking turn of events for anyone who considers themselves a fan of the FEP.

Sibling Showdown: With Emer out, it's Jay vs. Buhduh—a classic sibling rivalry for the FEP trophy, and a refreshing finale with our two newest competitors going head-to-head. If we do some quick math, we can calculate the tiebreaker-adjusted percentages for each of them to win:

• Jay: 83.7% weighted | 50% straight

• Buhduh: 16.3% weighted | 50% straight

Jay, the favorite since Week 9, is holding strong. His preseason optimism is paying off, while Buhduh is banking on chaos, such as another late-season collapse or a playoff-clinching snooze. Stranger things have happened.

All Eyes on Week 16: The Eagles at Commanders game is now important as ever. Buhduh picked a loss. Jay picked a win. The trophy doesn't ride on this one, but it surely will give us answers.

In Other News: The FEP is on the hunt of a software engineer who can help add our tiebreaker system into the algorithm.